Six still standing in the mid-major heap

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By Erik Bell
EBell@pigskinpodcast.com

The non-conference season in college football is all but over, save for a few games sprinkled in here and there. Since the non-conference slate is typically the part of the season where mid-major teams have their BCS bubbles burst, it's time to look at which teams are left standing and who has the best chance to sneak into a BCS bowl game.

With Fresno State's loss to Wisconsin last week, East Carolina's loss to N.C. State and Troy's setback to Ohio State, some of the contenders have been taken out of the running. There are only six undefeated teams left in the WAC, Mountain West, MAC and Conference USA. After Troy's loss, no one is unbeaten in the Sun Belt. So which of these six teams have a legitimate shot to end up in a BCS bowl?

6. TCU HORNED FROGS

The Horned Frogs always seem to be a player in this discussion, and this TCU team features a fierce defense that is allowing just 7.8 points per game. But that was against New Mexico, Stephen F. Austin, Stanford and Southern Methodist. The Horned Frogs' BCS chances will likely end this week against Oklahoma. Additionally, BYU and a trip to Utah await TCU later in the season. If they shock the Sooners, they have as good a chance as any of these teams. I wouldn't bet on that, however.

5. BALL STATE CARDINALS

The Cardinals opened some eyes with a 42-20 drubbing of Indiana in Bloomington on Saturday. Quarterback Nate Davis appears to be the next successful NFL quarterback from the MAC. The junior has a 72.6% completion percentage with 10 touchdowns compared to three interceptions so far.

But it's going to be next to impossible for a team from the MAC to ever make it to a BCS bowl, unless they beat some big boys out of conference. Indiana has been the Big Ten doormat for years, so the Hoosiers don't qualify, and neither do wins against Northeastern and a down Navy squad. The Cardinals will also be challenged to win the MAC West by a good Central Michigan squad that has lost to Georgia and Purdue (the Boilermakers had to fight for that victory). The Cardinals' Nov. 19 at Central Michigan will probably determine whether Ball State goes unbeaten in MAC play. Even if it does, BSU doesn't have the non-conference victory necessary to propel them to a BCS bowl.

4. TULSA GOLDEN HURRICANE

Bowling Green fans know what the Golden Hurricane offense is capable of after a 63-7 beatdown in the GMAC Bowl last season. This year's edition has been just as explosive so far, scoring 52.3 points per game. First-year starting quarterback David Johnson has 1,219 yards passing with 15 touchdowns and just two interceptions through three games.

But like Ball State, Tulsa likely won't have the non-conference victory to make their way into the BCS. Their wins so far are against North Texas, UAB and New Mexico. They play at Arkansas on Nov. 1, but the Razorbacks are a shell of their former selves. They will have to deal with a solid Central Florida squad and they'll likely have to play East Carolina in the Conference USA title game. Even if they make it through all that unbeaten, there won't be that signature victory that warrants a BCS appearance.

3. UTAH UTES

In any other season, that season-opening victory against Michigan would be huge. But the Wolverines are not that highly thought of this season as they struggle to adjust to their new spread offense. The Utes also needed a Darrell Mack touchdown run with 58 seconds left to squeak by Air Force on Saturday. Add on future contests against Oregon State, TCU and BYU, and I'm not sure the Utes have much of chance to make it through the season unbeaten.

That being said, they do host the Beavers, Horned Frogs and Cougars. The running back tandem of Mack and Matt Asiata has combined for 544 yards and allows Utah to establish its running game against any opponent on their schedule. If the Utes make it through their slate without a loss and Boise State trips up, they will have the résumé necessary to make it to a BCS bowl for the second time in five years.

2. BOISE STATE BRONCOS

The Broncos are back in the BCS conversation thanks to an impressive victory at Oregon on Saturday, the kind of win that can push a team into the BCS. The Broncos will face a tough challenge to end the season, against Fresno State on the blue field, a place where the Broncos have not lost a WAC game or any regular-season game since 2001 against Washington State. Ian Johnson is averaging 6.8 yards per carry in his 14th year of eligibility (maybe a bit of an exaggeration), and freshman quarterback Kellen Moore impressed by going into a hostile environment and throwing for 386 yards against the Ducks.

But while the Broncos appear to have as good of a chance as any of these teams to go unbeaten, their BCS hopes are likely out of their hands. They have to hope that a tough Mountain West Conference beats up on itself, with someone knocking off BYU. However, a case could be made that the Broncos' victory over Oregon gives them a better résumé than the Cougars.

1. BYU COUGARS

I picked BYU to make it to a BCS bowl before the season, and I'm going to stick with that prediction. The Cougars barely made it past a struggling Washington team, but that was on the road and it's never easy for any team at Husky Stadium. They pummeled UCLA and Wyoming, with junior quarterback Max Hall leading the way. Hall has been spectacular so far, throwing for 1284 yards and 15 touchdowns compared to just two picks through four games.

In order to finish the season unbeaten, the Cougars are going to have to win at TCU, at Air Force and at Utah. It won't be easy for BYU to extend its 17 conference-game winning streak.

In my opinion, if BYU gets through its schedule unbeaten, they will have the best résumé of all these teams. While Boise State's win over Oregon will probably be the best out of all these squads, the combination of all BYU's road wins and their dismantling of UCLA makes for a better all-around résumé in my opinion. If BYU gets tripped up, expect the Broncos to make it to the BCS for the second time in three seasons.

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