EXHIBIT A: TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

I don't think I'll get much of an argument here. Last year, these guys took advantage of an awful NFC South, which included a disappointing New Orleans Saints club, an injury-plagued Carolina Panthers squad and an embarrassing Atlanta Falcons team. The Bucs benefited from an easier schedule and somehow won their division with a 9-7 record. They went 3-5 on the road and won their games by an average of four points, scoring fewer points than six other teams that finished second in their respective divisions.

Certainly, the Bucs' defense was stout: Their 270 points allowed were second-fewest in the NFL and their defense was a lot better than I thought it would be. This year, it won't be so easy and while the defense has some recognizable names, I don't think it will have enough to win the division again. The Panthers have improved, the Saints have vastly improved and the Falcons can only get better after last year. Joey Galloway will be 37 before the season is over, and he's already had to sit out training camp sessions because of a groin injury. And, by the way, he's the best receiver they have. 

Jeff Garcia is upset that the Bucs were involved in the Brett Favre saga and they don't have much on the depth chart behind him. Actually, they have a lot behind him, but none of it's at all good. Earnest Graham was a one-year wonder, Warrick Dunn is on the wrong side of 30, Carnell "Cadillac" Williams spends more time in the shop than he does on the road and Michael Bennett is nothing more than a journeyman at this point. If you see this offense improving on last year's numbers, then you're drinking a special kind of Kool Aid.

Defensively, I think there is a little to get excited about. I like Gaines Adams on their defensive line, but he's about all I like there. Their linebackers will always be good as long as Derrick Brooks continues to be the leader, and their secondary includes players that have been good at one point or another, but this isn't exactly the 1985 Bears or the Baltimore Ravens of 2000. This is a good defensive unit, but their offense will keep them on the field a ton. It didn't matter as much last year, but because their division has improved so much this offseason, it will make a big difference this season.

EXHIBIT B: PITTSBURGH STEELERS

I know I'll get some resistance for this one. I think the Ravens will be better and the Browns will be better. Before the discussion begins, let me make it clear: I'm not a Browns fan, so don't use that argument against me.

The Steelers have a brutal schedule and even if they have a lot of weapons for Ben Roethlisberger to use, if that guy has to throw the ball more than 30 times a game, I don't think they are going to win. The problem for these guys will begin up front. I know Alan Faneca is just one man, but his loss was pretty big. Max Starks and Marvel Smith are coming off injuries, and the depth behind these guys gives those in the Steel City a lot to worry about. Rashard Mendenhall and Willie Parker should be a good tandem, but how good can they be if they don't have room to run? Limas Sweed, Heath Miller, Santonio Holmes and Hines Ward are all great options for Big Ben, but again, how can he get them the ball if he's on his back?

Defensively, the Steelers still have a great group of linebackers and Casey Hampton will eat up blockers in the middle, but I'm not extremely high on the secondary. DeShea Townsend and Ike Taylor still get thrown on quite a bit and though Troy Polamalu is great against the run, he's a bit of an injury risk and he's not the best against the pass. They were in the middle of the pack last year, allowing 22 touchdowns through the air.

Four of their first six games are on the road, against the Browns, Eagles, Jags and Bengals. To me, those are four losable games. Three of their final five are on the road in New England, Baltimore and Tennessee, with their two home games being against Dallas and the Browns. I'm not saying that this team will miss the playoffs, but I do see Pittsburgh playing on the road in the first round if they end up getting there.

As we've come to learn in this league, teams can rise to the top and they can take a fall from grace just as quickly. You can bet that there will be more than just two teams who will fall from the top, but I'm predicting that these two in particular will not be divisional champs this season.