Breaking down the Buckeyes' second half

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By Erik Bell
ebell@pigskinpodcast.com

Last week, I looked at the first half of the Ohio State schedule and determined they would go 5-1, with a loss in Los Angeles to USC the only blemish. How does the second half of the schedule shape up? Let's dive right in.

Week 7: Purdue

What to watch for: Can Joe Tiller do something special in West Lafayette in his last year with the Boilermakers? Purdue will return 14 starters from a team that went 8-5 last season, but just 3-5 in a mediocre Big Ten. They return quarterback Curtis Painter, who could be the best quarterback in the conference, but the problem lies on defense. It was very inconsistent last season, and that's not exactly a recipe for a special season. The Boilermakers might win eight or nine games, but this won't be one of them

Final score: 38-28, Ohio State

Week 8: at Michigan State

What to watch for: This is a game that not many Buckeye fans are going to be worried about, but they absolutely should be. I believe Michigan State will be the surprise team of the Big Ten this season, led by bruising running back Javon Ringer.

The most important factor here is second-year head coach Mark Dantonio, who knows what he's doing. Remember, he was the defensive coordinator that stymied an explosive Miami offense to bring home the national championship for Ohio State in 2003; how have Ohio State's defensive game plans worked in the national championship games under current defensive coordinator Jim Heacock? Dantonio knows Jim Tressel and knows his tendencies, which should make for some interesting games in the years to come between these two programs.

I don't see Ohio State going undefeated in the Big Ten, and I think this is their loss. It will be a huge upset in the eyes of many if it happens, but I believe it's the beginning of some good times in East Lansing. Andy Barch is either laughing hysterically, or cursing me and breaking things as he reads this.

Final score: 20-17, Michigan State

Week 9: Penn State

What to watch for: This is usually a tough, defensive, physical game. Penn State seems to always be aware of what Ohio State wants to do on offense. Three seasons ago, when I thought Ohio State had their best team under Tressel besides the national championship edition, the Nittany Lion defense swarmed Troy Smith and the Buckeyes under the lights in Happy Valley. That was one of only two losses for Ohio State that season. Last year ... well ... I won't mention last year for those Penn State fans reading this. Since I believe the Buckeyes will be coming off a stinging upset in East Lansing, they'll bounce back and win a tough battle.

Final score: 28-20, Ohio State

Week 10: at Northwestern

What to watch for: The Wildcats always play smart and they should have an explosive offense with quarterback C.J. Bacher and former Ohio high school star running back Tyrell Sutton returning. The defense is another story. They allowed 31 points per game last season, and head coach Pat Fitzgerald needs to shore up that side of the ball if he wants to make some noise in the Big Ten. I don't see the Wildcats stopping the Buckeye offense enough to make this one interesting.

Final score: 45-24, Ohio State

Week 11: at Illinois

What to watch for: To me, this might be the most intriguing game of Ohio State's season. Is Ohio State really immune to stopping the spread offense, or have they just gotten beat by better teams in those games against Florida and Illinois? I thought Illinois played an absolutely fantastic, almost perfect game last season against Ohio State. But I thought it was because of the passing of Juice Williams, not necessarily because of the spread offense. Illinois will be an interesting team to me because with running back Rashard Mendenhall gone, Williams is going to have to consistently beat teams with the vertical passing game. Unless he can do it again against Ohio State, the Buckeyes win this game.

Final score: 24-17, Ohio State

Week 12: Michigan

What to watch for: Most experts will not give the Wolverines a chance in this game. But I want to take you back to 2001, when a new man coached in an Ohio State-Michigan game against a counterpart that had been dominating the series. Remember, Lloyd Carr was 5-1 against Ohio State until John Cooper was fired. That new man wasn't given much of a chance in a game at the Big House against a Wolverines team that came in 8-2. But, Buckeye fans know the story. Tressel pulled off the upset, in what was the first of six victories in seven games against Michigan. The scenario should be about the same for Rich Rodriguez this season. Can he pull it off in Columbus in his first game coaching in the biggest rivalry in college football? Ohio State will definitely have more experience and talent; can't go against that.

Final score: 31-20, Ohio State

So there you have it, a 10-2 season for the Buckeyes. That should be enough for a Big Ten title and a trip to the Rose Bowl, but probably not enough for a third straight trip to the BCS title game. The national media will be thankful for that.

Coming up next week, I'll turn my attention to the Brownies. The first four games will be dissected in my next blog entry.

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